ARMENIAN TRAGEDY

by Elmar Huseinov

Elections in Armenia to say more precisely what happened after them is a visual evidence of breakdown of Armenian state system as well as social and political life in Armenia. Such a condition of Armenian society is not a new tendency however, it’s the first time bias is so sharply embodied by public confrontation. In spite of any result of the second voting it’s evident Armenia is not as it was before.

la catastrophe arménienne

The main problem of present national condition of Armenians is crisis of national spirit. Every Armenian understands at heart there are serious problems for existence of his/her nation. The scope of the crisis is seen with unaided eye. Not so long ago a web-survey called “Armenia-2020” was held by one of the most popular Armenian internet recourses. All wishing Armenian users were given opportunity to prognosticate how Armenia will be like in 2020. the organizers of the survey were shocked after they had read the answers. Overwhelming majority of the forecasts was extremely pessimistic. Actually one should be an exorbitant optimist to call the condition of Armenian society ‘crisis’. In fact it is frustration, not a crisis because one should establish the fact of complete degradation of all principles laid into the basis of third Armenian Republic’s state organization. The elective crisis has only revealed the widely known secret. The character feature of Armenian social condition is non-recognition of the crisis of Armenian society as well as full absence of any future prospects.

The economic situation in Armenia is almost crashed. At the time of the USSR Armenia was depressed and granted-in aid region as well. And absence of source of raw materials and energy dependence has later become the basis of today’s economic collapse. Hopes for investments failed. The primary estimation was based on involvement of investments by Armenian diaspora into economy of the republic in order to provide further economic development. The Armenian exorbitant optimists failed to take into account two major things: the mentality of diaspora Armenians and blind geo-economic situation of the country. Unlike the Jewry, Armenians refused to subsidize construction of state, having laid stress on relief actions to diaspora Armenians who left for US and Europe. While as the fundamental tendency of the Jewry was Zionism – the ideology of creation of Jewish state at any price, the Armenian ideology was quite opposite.

Armenians made all efforts to broaden their diaspora in other countries. The purpose is evident: they wanted to use the diaspora in order to solve their problems in these states. However, such a policy deprived the Armenian state of foreign investments. Today Armenians hope for investments from Russia more than from their foreign congeners.

Economic collapse caused decay of industry and slump of the people’s income level which lead to population flow-out. The population of Armenia diminished twice as much within last decade. There is an interesting fact: man power flow-out from Azerbaijan to Russia caused currency afflux to our country. There was no such situation in Armenia. We can understand the reason comparing the gender of those who leave Azerbaijan and Armenia. The number of male and female out-goers is equal which means that unlike Armenians leave with their families, i.e. for ever, unlike Azerbaijanis who mostly depart in order to earn their living.

This fits in armenians’ mentality for which it’s important to stay with their families where they work. However, this rebounds the economic condition of Armenia. The country is so poor that can hardly provide sustenance for its diminished population. This is why the population flow-out became chronic. According to a choice word of an Armenian journalist “Armenia resembles a cradle: Armenians are born here only to grow up and leave”.

Poor socio-economic condition of the country is aggravated by large (even for Armenians) scale of corruption. Coalescence of government and capital caused emergence of oligarchic network which elements are interested in quickest enrichment. This is possible only through destructive misuse of the national wealth. Basically national wealth of Armenia is industrial equipment, not raw material resources. Therefore, Armenian business is based on sale of this equipment which is being sent to iran, just like scrap metal.

Cease-fire ordeal

During long time all of the existent disadvantages were hushed up by Upper Garabagh (“Nagorno-Karabakh”) war disbursements. Total mobilization of power and means for needs of exhausting war caused present poor condition of Armenian state system. Armenians occupied Upper Garabagh (“Nagorno-Karabakh”), moreover, they managed to seize some lands surrounding Upper Garabagh which would create trends for “peace instead of surrounding lands” bargain in future. Yet, having occupied Upper Garabagh Armenia got deprived of national development aspects. Upper Garabagh turned out to be the price Armenia paid for its disintegration from regional economic area.

But occupation of Upper Garabagh was not able to compensate losses of Armenian nation. Besides strategic losses of Armenia who excluded herself (by occupying Upper Garabagh) from regional economic partnership programs, we have to recollect another fact to establish the fact of Armenia’s failure. As a result of Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan all Armenians had to leave our country. Before the conflict they totaled 15% of Azerbaijani population but gained 23% income of the Azerbaijani “pie”. Consumer services belonged to Armenian stock in our Republic. If not for the conflict over 35% of Azerbaijani market would have belonged to Armenians. Even temporary occupation of upper Garabagh will not ever recompense for such losses. For sake of Pyrrhic military victories in Upper Garabagh Armenia had to change her political orientation. Westernized line of policy was substituted by isolationist tendencies which presuppose tight integration with Russia. Factually, Armenia performs the role of Russia’s “unsinkable aircraft-carrier” in South Caucasus; the same role Tajikistan performs in Central Asia.

Armenia could not stand the ordeal by peace. Having held out during military actions, the population of Armenia failed to build normal life. Why? Maybe they were well-prepared to war (after decades-long lasting anti-Azerbaijan propaganda) and not ready for peace. Armenian psychology itself, based on the idea of national exclusiveness and nourished by “genocide” paranoia, brilliantly fit the purposes of Armenian leaders.

Constant references to historical eminence plus territorial claims caused national inferiority complex. “Grandiose” victories in Upper Garabagh (provided by Russian’s and other’s help) aggravated morbid perception of everything what did not fit messianic pattern of armenian’s ideology. If Armenia had been defeated in the war this would have saved the situation. As a result of crisis caused by the defeat other powers with a different view of the Armenia’s role in regional processes would have emerged in the republic. However, this did not happen. Thoroughgoing powers with radical view of the Karabakh conflict who consider that as the winner Armenia should get territorial preferences have come to rule. And Armenia fell within geopolitical deadlock as a result.

Armenian prophet

Strangely enough, the first step toward comprehension of Armenia’s role and place in new world was to be made by that very one under whose rule Armenia had achieved military advances, ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosian. He called into question the ‘victory’. According to ter-Petrosian Armenians wined a battle, not the war itself. He elucidated his view of the situation and settlement of the basic problems in his article which contents came to establishment of the fact that Upper Garabagh is not worth Armenia’s self-isolation.

Yet, that was a voice in the wilderness. Armenians turned out to be not ready to perceive the “Afflatus by Levon” due to a simple reason – they are still held captive by huge number of mythologemes. Every nation tends towards mythologization of their past. Moreover, the worse condition people live in, the more they mythologize their history. Sometimes it goes through the time limits intruding into present day. In Armenia such tendency reached the very climax. Armenians do not really understand where myths end and reality begins. One of such myths of Armenian contemporaneity is the myth of invincibility of the Armenian weapon. Having come into being after doubtful victories with the help of Russian army it swell to the scale of myth about invincible nation. The main argument of Armenians who do not compromise concerning Upper Garabagh (“Nagprno-Karabakh”) is that ‘the winner never makes concessions to the defeated side’. Vae victis!

Levon Ter-Petrosian dared to doubt this very myth. And he was swept off as a result. To understand what he had done one should imagine how the Soviet people would have reacted if Stalin had declared on May, 9 1945 that the victory over Germany makes no sense as socialism doomed and future is with capitalism. Even in Azerbaijan, the country that lost in the first battle the only allusion about making concessions to Armenians is being perceived inadequately. That’s why the Armenian society confident about stability of military advances grew mad from former president’s revelation.

Most probably Ter-Petrosian knew what reaction his statement would cause. What did he count on? Maybe he hoped this would be the basis for dialogue between the confronting sides. Maybe foreseeing the results such publications he intentionally gave rise to the crisis as he saw the outline of the forthcoming national catastrophe and tried to prevent worst developments in Armenia. But Armenian society assailed him for ‘capitulator position’. As a result of massive pressure exerted upon him by all stratum Levon Ter-Petrosian retired. The analysis of the developments in Armenia shows that Armenian society has not forgiven him for his Karabakh charter. Most of the population did not share Ter-Petrosian’s opinion, although even those who assailed him understand brilliantly that his prognostications come true. Indeed, be not a prophet in one’s homeland.

Upper Garabagh boomerang

Today Armenia reaps the fruits of her catastrophic mistakes. Crisis around Upper Garabagh undermined the political situation. In fact Armenia is in the same situation Azerbaijan had been at the beginning of the 90-s when Upper Garabagh conflict caused political crisis in our country. This crisis took in all stratum of Azerbaijani society and resulted in dominant position of refugees from Armenia on the political horizon of the country. These people being driven out from Armenia in 1987-1989 as a result of Upper Garabagh conflict had become the impact force in formation of clan’s dictatorship. Their unity helped them achieve political advances.

In Armenia such power was represented by the military-political elite, who came from Upper Garabagh. In the course of war they worked out special unity and organizational structure. This enabled them to take control over socio-political situation in the country. Today the ‘Karabakh clan’ accumulated exorbitant administrative resources in Armenia. Absence of normal conditions for development of business and concentration of the economy in the hands of oligarchs lead to monopolization of power by the clan. Therefore, the Karabakh conflict hit Armenia like a boomerang. Today Armenia is being unlimitedly controlled by the Karabakh clan. This tribe and its political basis, the military elite of Armenian army determine the main parameters of development.

What happened in the course of elections in Armenia can be interpreted as an antithesis implication; it was the first time Armenian anti-tribalist powers united themselves against the ruling tribe. The election scandal split the Armenian society which only seemed to be solid before. It’s not casual that the most popular slogan at the anti-Kocharian mass demonstrations was demand to annul the Armenian citizenship of those who got it since 1992. this evidently shows that Robert Kocharian’s opponents strive to destroy dictatorship of the ‘Karabakh clan’. We can now observe the beginning of full-scale struggle against the ‘Karabakh clan’ in Armenia. Local Armenians express their attitude towards their congeners from Karabakh by means of a widespread phrase. “a Karabakh mule” – this is the idiom local Armenians call those who come from Upper Garabagh either behind their backs or publicly.

The Armenian Lessons

It’s very important for Azerbaijan to understand the lessons of what is happening in Armenia due to several reasons. First, Armenia goes through socio-political processes partially similar with those in Azerbaijan. Second, we are suffering from Armenians’ permanent aggression so we must know all weak points if our historic enemy. What is now happening in Armenia is a natural result of the socio-political tendencies that played main role in Armenia during last decades. As a result, today Armenia is on the verge of dictatorship. Numerous independent observers never blamed the fact of falsifications during the election. Relying on military-political elite consisting of Karabakh emigrants R.Kocharian usurped the power. their authority is now undermined so they bear on force so that to strengthen the domination of ‘Karabakh clan’. Transformation of Armenia will put her among outcasts like Iraq or Belarus, which is a direct way to complete self-isolation (especially since Armenians did their utmost for that).

Our “sworn enemies” are suffering tragedy before our eyes. They could not manage to find their place in this world. Armenians’ fatal mistake was that they sincerely believed in their ‘messianizm’ and were guided by emotions, not common sense. Armenian tragedy taught several lessons and each needs deep consideration. One thing is evident that any attempt to build national prosperity at the expense aggression against the neighbor comes to grief. Armenia is the only country who completed ethnic cleansing on its territory. Yet, staying alone Armenians began to subdivide themselves according to regionalist and tribalist basis.

Such a transformation is the result of the arisen tendencies. The tendencies so peculiar and often as paradoxical as the Armenian society itself. One of the major lessons is comprehension of the fact that “national exclusiveness” ideas are unconformable with the globalizing world. Therefore we, Azerbaijanis have to make necessary conclusions.

And, as armenians’ bitter experience shows, no even most highly organized nation can count on prosperity and progress by making oppression on other nation, as it contradicts the tendencies according to which our world is developed.

Armenian tragedy took place because social mind put the interests of the nation over those of the individuals (and the interests of ideologists over those of the nation). In their effort to broaden their territory Armenians behaved the way Nazi Germany did. Like germans, Armenians considers themselves historically aggrieved. For sake of nourishing the sense of national pride Armenians launched the war in Upper Garabagh. And they lost, as they put own future on the altar of national inferiority complex. Not a single generation of Armenian historians will have to search the answer for the most intricate and unanswerable question of Armenian reality: was Upper Garabagh they temporarily occupied really worth deprivation of future?